Prospect of rising mortgage rates may prompt heightened buyer activity early in the year, according to Royal LePage forecast
TORONTO, January 6, 2011 – The average price of a home in Canada increased between 3.9 and 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to the previous year, as markets shrugged off a lackluster third quarter and returned to a post-recession growth profile. Home values are forecast to continue a moderate and steady climb in many of the country’s key housing markets through 2011 with sales activity skewed to the first half of the year, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today.
The low cost of borrowing stimulated the housing market in 2010, and this trend is predicted to continue in the first half of 2011. The widely held consumer belief that rates will rise in the latter part of 2011 may prompt an increase in buying activity early in the year.
“Trends in the housing market continue to be driven by the lingering after-effects of the recession,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “Canadians realize that interest rates are unsustainably low and that homes will become effectively more expensive when mortgage rates return to normal levels. We will likely see more price appreciation early in 2011 as some buyers complete transactions in advance of anticipated higher borrowing costs.”
Soper added, “2011 is expected to unfold much like 2010, when close to 60 per cent of sales volume occurred in the first half of the year in anticipation of interest rate increases that never materialized. However, housing market activity in the first half of 2011 will be modestly closer to the norm, as last year’s phenomenon was exacerbated by mid-year tightening of mortgage accessibility and the introduction of HST in Ontario and British Columbia.”
Regionally, the strongest price appreciation of the cities studied is expected in mid-sized urban centers where affordability is better than the national average. For example, in Winnipeg, St. John’s and Fredericton, two-storey homes below $300,000 are still widely available. Demand in these cities is expected to be strong, putting upward pressure on home values.
Cities in Alberta are expected to be among Canada’s strongest performing markets in 2011. Woes in the historically volatile region’s housing market stretch approximately five years, when the Alberta housing market suffered a sharp correction following several years of double-digit price increases. The province’s energy-driven economy staged a comeback in 2010, recovering from the recession-led plunge in oil and gas prices. Major employers are expected to steadily increase hiring in 2011 which should attract new residents to the province and put upward pressure on the limited supply of housing. Royal LePage forecasts the average price of a home in Calgary will increase 5.4 per cent through 2011 while Edmonton home prices will increase 3.3 per cent. Home sale transactions are predicted to rise 6.7 per cent in Calgary and 9.1 per cent in Edmonton over the same period.
Across Canada, the average price of a home is forecast to rise 3 per cent over the coming year to $348,600 while the number of transactions is expected to drop 2 per cent.
During the fourth quarter of 2010, average home prices either increased or stabilized year-over-year, with Winnipeg, Ottawa, Montreal and St. John’s seeing the biggest gains. Nationally, the average price of detached bungalows rose to $324,531 (up 4.6 per cent), the price of standard two-storey homes rose to $360,329 (up 4.4 per cent), and the price of standard condominiums rose to $226,746 (up 3.9 per cent), compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.
Mr. Soper continued, “Like many Canadians, we anticipated an end to the ultra-low interest rate era before year-end 2010. Paradoxically, global economic weakness, particularly in the United States, allowed policy makers and financial institutions to keep borrowing costs low, resulting in a stronger Canadian housing market and a better than forecast fourth quarter.”
REGIONAL MARKET SUMMARIES
The residential real estate in market in St. John’s, Newfoundland saw strong year-over-year price gains across all three housing types surveyed every quarter this year. However, market has showed signs of cooling as inventory starts to rise.
Detached bungalows and two-storey houses in Montreal saw an 8.7 per cent year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter, while standard condominiums jumped 11.3 per cent. Average prices in Montreal are forecast to increase by a more modest 3 per cent in 2011 as a more balanced market emerges.
Ottawa’s housing market saw year-over-year price appreciation ranging between 6.3 and 10 per cent across all housing types surveyed this quarter. However, as inventory grows, Ottawa can expect price increases to be closer to 4 percent in 2011.
House prices surveyed in Toronto increased modestly year-over-year. Standard two-storey homes witnessed the largest increases at 5.6 per cent. Market activity slowed in the second half of the year as buyers rushed to the market in the first half of the year in anticipation of interest rate hikes and HST. For 2011, price increases are expected to be very modest at approximately 1 per cent.
Detached bungalows, standard two-storey homes, and standard condominiums in Winnipeg witnessed strong year-over-year price gains this quarter. Detached bungalows performed the strongest, increasing 10.3 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. Although the market is showing signs of cooling, sellers are still seeing multiple offers and are often receiving higher than their asking price. Winnipeg is expected to maintain its momentum throughout 2011 with prices rising around 7 per cent.
Single family homes performed best in Regina, which saw standard two-storey homes increase 9.1 per cent, while detached bungalows rose 8.4% and standard condominiums increased 2.4 per cent. Prices in Regina are expected to increase an overall average of 5 percent in 2011.
Both Calgary and Edmonton are positioned for house price increases in 2011 with a rebounding energy sector. In 2010, Calgary witnessed moderate year-over-year price depreciation across all housing types surveyed. Edmonton saw more modest price depreciation for two-storey houses, while condominiums decreased 5.7 per cent. Detached bungalows witnessed the only price increase among housing types surveyed at 1.2 per cent.
Single family homes in Vancouver dominated house price gains as two-storey houses rose year-over-year by 9.8 per cent in 2010. Condominiums on the East Side performed particularly well and, on average, Vancouver’s standard condominium market rose 7 per cent. Vancouver prices are expected to increase 3.7 per cent in 2011.
Royal LePage’s quarterly House Price Survey shows the annual change of prices for key housing segments in select national markets. Click here to view the chart .
About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey is the largest, most comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca. Current figures will be updated following the complete tabulation of the data for the fourth quarter 2010. A printable version of the fourth quarter 2010 survey will be available online on February 4th, 2011.
Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are Royal LePage opinions of fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is available for some areas back to the early 1970s.
Helping you is what I do!
Monday, January 24, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
The Harper Government Takes Prudent Action to Support the Long-Term Stability of Canada’s Housing Market
The Honourable Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance, and the Honourable Christian Paradis, Minister of Natural Resources, today announced prudent adjustments to the rules for government-backed insured mortgages to support the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market and support hard-working Canadian families saving through home ownership.
“Canada’s well-regulated housing sector has been an important strength that allowed us to avoid the mistakes of other countries and helped protect us from the worst of the recent global recession,” said Minister Flaherty. “The prudent measures announced today build on that advantage by encouraging hard-working Canadian families to save by investing in their homes and future.”
“The economy continues to be our Government’s top priority,” continued Minister Paradis. “Our Government will continue to take the necessary actions to ensure stability and economic certainty in Canada’s housing market.”
The new measures:
· Reduce the maximum amortization period to 30 years from 35 years for new government-backed insured mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 per cent. This will significantly reduce the total interest payments Canadian families make on their mortgages, allow Canadian families to build up equity in their homes more quickly, and help Canadians pay off their mortgages before they retire.
· Lower the maximum amount Canadians can borrow in refinancing their mortgages to 85 per cent from 90 per cent of the value of their homes. This will promote saving through home ownership and limit the repackaging of consumer debt into mortgages guaranteed by taxpayers.
· Withdraw government insurance backing on lines of credit secured by homes, such as home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. This will ensure that risks associated with consumer debt products used to borrow funds unrelated to house purchases are managed by the financial institutions and not borne by taxpayers.
Our Government’s ongoing monitoring and sound underlying supervisory regime, along with the traditionally cautious approach taken by Canadian financial institutions to mortgage lending, have allowed Canada to maintain strong and secure housing and mortgage markets.
The adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework will come into force on March 18, 2011. The withdrawal of government insurance backing on lines of credit secured by homes will come into force on April 18, 2011.
“Canada’s well-regulated housing sector has been an important strength that allowed us to avoid the mistakes of other countries and helped protect us from the worst of the recent global recession,” said Minister Flaherty. “The prudent measures announced today build on that advantage by encouraging hard-working Canadian families to save by investing in their homes and future.”
“The economy continues to be our Government’s top priority,” continued Minister Paradis. “Our Government will continue to take the necessary actions to ensure stability and economic certainty in Canada’s housing market.”
The new measures:
· Reduce the maximum amortization period to 30 years from 35 years for new government-backed insured mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 per cent. This will significantly reduce the total interest payments Canadian families make on their mortgages, allow Canadian families to build up equity in their homes more quickly, and help Canadians pay off their mortgages before they retire.
· Lower the maximum amount Canadians can borrow in refinancing their mortgages to 85 per cent from 90 per cent of the value of their homes. This will promote saving through home ownership and limit the repackaging of consumer debt into mortgages guaranteed by taxpayers.
· Withdraw government insurance backing on lines of credit secured by homes, such as home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. This will ensure that risks associated with consumer debt products used to borrow funds unrelated to house purchases are managed by the financial institutions and not borne by taxpayers.
Our Government’s ongoing monitoring and sound underlying supervisory regime, along with the traditionally cautious approach taken by Canadian financial institutions to mortgage lending, have allowed Canada to maintain strong and secure housing and mortgage markets.
The adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework will come into force on March 18, 2011. The withdrawal of government insurance backing on lines of credit secured by homes will come into force on April 18, 2011.
Monday, January 10, 2011
You can buy a house with no money down
If you have a good job and want to buy a first home, but don’t have a down payment, can it be done? The answer is maybe and depends on how you answer these questions.
How's you credit score? In order to qualify for a mortgage you must have a good credit rating. Try and reduce or eliminate all outstanding credit card debt first. Cancel credit cards that you are not using.
Do not change jobs just before applying for a mortgage. The lender will want to see that you have a stable employment history. You can go to Equifax.ca to obtain a free copy of your credit score. If any information in your credit file is incorrect, take the time to get it fixed before applying for any mortgage loan.
Do you qualify for an insured mortgage? With an insured mortgage, you are able to finance up to 95 per cent of the purchase price, either through CMHC or a private mortgage insurer. You will need to have at least the remaining 5 per cent down payment, as well as approximately an additional 1.5 per cent to cover the land transfer tax, legal, moving and other closing fees.
You may also want to set some money aside to do some work on your new home before you move in. To obtain the insured mortgage, you will have to demonstrate that you have enough monthly household income to pay your mortgage as well as your household expenses. It is a good idea to try and get pre approval for a mortgage, so you know before looking how much you can afford, based on the down payment that you have.
Is a mortgage with no down payment possible? Some lenders offer qualified buyers the entire down payment on the day of closing, if the buyer has good credit, stable employment and qualifies for the lender’s closed-mortgage rate over 5 years. This can allow you to buy a home worth up to $400,000 in most cases.
The disadvantages with these mortgages are that if you want to discharge them early, you will have to pay back a pro-rated portion of the money received. And you will probably be paying 3 per cent more interest on a monthly basis than you would if you were using a variable rate mortgage, which is popular today among most home buyers.
This extra interest will amount to more than the imputed value of the down payment over a five year period, yet it will be offset by the fact that you get to close your purchase now, with a down payment that you currently don’t have. Other lenders offer similar “cash back” mortgages, which may cover your 1.5 per cent closing costs or more, on similar terms and conditions.
What about the agent’s commission? Most buyers use a real estate agent to find the right home and negotiate the best price. They provide advice on how to handle a bidding war, make sure your home is professionally inspected, and arrange the proper insurance. They may introduce you to a mortgage lender. Most buyer agents will try and obtain their commission from the seller. But if the seller refuses to pay them, it is expected that the buyer will pay the agent.
Let’s say the buyer agrees to pay their agent 2.5 per cent commission for their efforts. The agent finds a house and the buyer wishes to pay $400,000, with the understanding that the seller will pay the buyer agent the 2.5 per cent commission, or $10,000, plus HST.
Now let’s say the seller refuses to pay the commission. The buyer will then offer $390,000 to the seller and will pay the agent directly. The difficulty with this example is if you are a buyer with very little down payment, you do not have this extra $10,000 plus HST to pay the agent.
CMHC has indicated that in the above example, they will only finance the commission if it is included in the $400,000 sale price. This to me is wrong and needs to be changed. CMHC should permit a buyer such as the one in this example who pays $390,000 plus $10,000 directly to the buyer agent, to be able to finance this entire amount with an insured mortgage.
Hopefully, this will change, once CMHC sees the impact of all the recent changes to real estate brokerage models as a result of the settlement between the Competition Bureau and the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Until that happens, buyers need to be up-front and honest with their buyer agents. If you know you do not have the money to pay the buyer agent yourself, as in the above example, explain to the agent that every offer you submit must be on the understanding that the seller will be paying the commission directly.
Other stuff. If you are contemplating a home with a basement apartment to help carry your expenses, be careful to make sure that the unit has legal zoning and complies with the local Fire Code. In addition, make sure that you notify your insurance company about this.
Finally, always have a professional home inspection done. You do not want to find, after closing, that the house requires repairs that you can’t afford.
Even if you have a low down payment, by being properly prepared, your dream of home ownership can come true in 2011.
How's you credit score? In order to qualify for a mortgage you must have a good credit rating. Try and reduce or eliminate all outstanding credit card debt first. Cancel credit cards that you are not using.
Do not change jobs just before applying for a mortgage. The lender will want to see that you have a stable employment history. You can go to Equifax.ca to obtain a free copy of your credit score. If any information in your credit file is incorrect, take the time to get it fixed before applying for any mortgage loan.
Do you qualify for an insured mortgage? With an insured mortgage, you are able to finance up to 95 per cent of the purchase price, either through CMHC or a private mortgage insurer. You will need to have at least the remaining 5 per cent down payment, as well as approximately an additional 1.5 per cent to cover the land transfer tax, legal, moving and other closing fees.
You may also want to set some money aside to do some work on your new home before you move in. To obtain the insured mortgage, you will have to demonstrate that you have enough monthly household income to pay your mortgage as well as your household expenses. It is a good idea to try and get pre approval for a mortgage, so you know before looking how much you can afford, based on the down payment that you have.
Is a mortgage with no down payment possible? Some lenders offer qualified buyers the entire down payment on the day of closing, if the buyer has good credit, stable employment and qualifies for the lender’s closed-mortgage rate over 5 years. This can allow you to buy a home worth up to $400,000 in most cases.
The disadvantages with these mortgages are that if you want to discharge them early, you will have to pay back a pro-rated portion of the money received. And you will probably be paying 3 per cent more interest on a monthly basis than you would if you were using a variable rate mortgage, which is popular today among most home buyers.
This extra interest will amount to more than the imputed value of the down payment over a five year period, yet it will be offset by the fact that you get to close your purchase now, with a down payment that you currently don’t have. Other lenders offer similar “cash back” mortgages, which may cover your 1.5 per cent closing costs or more, on similar terms and conditions.
What about the agent’s commission? Most buyers use a real estate agent to find the right home and negotiate the best price. They provide advice on how to handle a bidding war, make sure your home is professionally inspected, and arrange the proper insurance. They may introduce you to a mortgage lender. Most buyer agents will try and obtain their commission from the seller. But if the seller refuses to pay them, it is expected that the buyer will pay the agent.
Let’s say the buyer agrees to pay their agent 2.5 per cent commission for their efforts. The agent finds a house and the buyer wishes to pay $400,000, with the understanding that the seller will pay the buyer agent the 2.5 per cent commission, or $10,000, plus HST.
Now let’s say the seller refuses to pay the commission. The buyer will then offer $390,000 to the seller and will pay the agent directly. The difficulty with this example is if you are a buyer with very little down payment, you do not have this extra $10,000 plus HST to pay the agent.
CMHC has indicated that in the above example, they will only finance the commission if it is included in the $400,000 sale price. This to me is wrong and needs to be changed. CMHC should permit a buyer such as the one in this example who pays $390,000 plus $10,000 directly to the buyer agent, to be able to finance this entire amount with an insured mortgage.
Hopefully, this will change, once CMHC sees the impact of all the recent changes to real estate brokerage models as a result of the settlement between the Competition Bureau and the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Until that happens, buyers need to be up-front and honest with their buyer agents. If you know you do not have the money to pay the buyer agent yourself, as in the above example, explain to the agent that every offer you submit must be on the understanding that the seller will be paying the commission directly.
Other stuff. If you are contemplating a home with a basement apartment to help carry your expenses, be careful to make sure that the unit has legal zoning and complies with the local Fire Code. In addition, make sure that you notify your insurance company about this.
Finally, always have a professional home inspection done. You do not want to find, after closing, that the house requires repairs that you can’t afford.
Even if you have a low down payment, by being properly prepared, your dream of home ownership can come true in 2011.
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